UC DAVIS LEADS ATTACK ON DEADLY NEW DISEASES
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The global early warning system, named PREDICT, will be developed
with funding of up to $75 million over five years and is one of five
new initiatives of the U.S. Agency for International Development
(USAID) known in combination as the Emerging Pandemic Threats
Program. Building on its long-standing programs in disease
surveillance and response, USAID is developing these initiatives to
help prepare the world for infectious diseases like H1N1 flu, avian
flu, SARS and Ebola.

UC Davis' primary PREDICT partners, which have formed a global
consortium to implement PREDICT around the world, are: Wildlife
Conservation Society, Wildlife Trust, Global Viral Forecasting Inc.,
and Smithsonian Institution.

"Predicting where new diseases may emerge from wild animals, and
detecting viruses and other pathogens before they spread among
people, give us the best chance to prevent new pandemics," said Jonna
Mazet, the UC Davis scientist leading PREDICT. Mazet directs the UC
Davis Wildlife Health Center within the new One Health Institute at
the School of Veterinary Medicine.

The concept of 'One Health' -- that human, animal and environmental
health are inextricably linked and should be considered holistically
-- is a core principle of the PREDICT team.

"To establish and maintain global pathogen surveillance, we will work
directly with local governments and conservation organizations to
build or expand programs in wildlife and human health. Together we
want to stop the next HIV," Mazet said. "This collaborative approach
is key to PREDICT's success."

The PREDICT team will be active in global hotspots where important
wildlife host species have significant interaction with domestic
animals and high-density human populations. They may include South
America's Amazon Basin, Africa's Congo Basin and neighboring Rift
Valley, South Asia's Gangetic Plain, and Southeast Asia. As
activities in targeted regions come on-line, the team will focus on
detecting disease-causing organisms in wildlife before they spill
over into people.

"While no one can predict with certainty where the next pandemic
disease will emerge, being ready for early detection and rapid
response will minimize its potential impact on our social and
economic well-being," said Murray Trostle, deputy director of the
Avian and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Unit of USAID.

UC Davis will bring on emerging-disease authority Stephen S. Morse of
Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health as director of
PREDICT. Morse said that, historically, pandemics -- epidemics that
spread around the world -- occurred perhaps every 30 to 40 years.
"But in our modern world, the chances of novel diseases or even a new
pandemic emerging are higher than ever, because of how we live and
the extent to which we travel, Morse said. "Our human settlements and
roadways push deeper into forests and wild areas where we now raise
livestock and poultry; and we transport ourselves, our animals and
our food farther and faster around the globe."

Those conditions enable the spread of microbes, especially viruses
and bacteria, from animals to humans. Among the 1,461 pathogens
recognized to cause diseases in humans, at least 60 percent are of
animal origin.

Notable outbreaks of these animal-to-human diseases, or zoonoses
(pronounced ZO-oh-NO-sees), include:

* The 1918 influenza pandemic, which was probably caused by a virus
that jumped from birds, killed over 50 million people globally;

* The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which moved from
chimpanzees to people, now infects more than 33 million individuals;

* Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which emerged in 2003
from southern China "wet markets" where wild animals are sold for
food; and

* The recent outbreaks of avian influenza H5N1, or "bird flu."

In a global pandemic today, a quarter of the world's population could
be infected and between 51 million and 81 million people could die,
with the toll in the United States exceeding 400,000 deaths. World
economic losses are estimated to exceed $4 trillion.

About UC Davis

For 100 years, UC Davis has engaged in teaching, research and public
service that matter to meet the needs of California and transform the
world. Located close to the state capital in Sacramento, UC Davis has
31,000 students, an annual research budget that exceeds $500 million,
a comprehensive health system and 13 specialized research centers.
The university offers interdisciplinary graduate study and more than
100 undergraduate majors in four colleges -- Agricultural and
Environmental Sciences, Biological Sciences, Engineering, and Letters
and Science -- and advanced degrees from six professional schools --
Education, Law, Management, Medicine, Veterinary Medicine and the
Betty Irene Moore School of Nursing.

About the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine

As a top veterinary school internationally, and the leading one in
preventive medicine and wildlife health, UC Davis has an extensive
research and training track record in the fields of epidemiology,
surveillance, zoonotic diseases, comparative medicine, diagnostics,
wildlife pathogens and conservation, food safety, disease prevention,
and outbreak response. The school has trained more than 800
international veterinarians from 75 countries, including hotspots in
Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Its One Health Institute and
Wildlife Health Center manage One Health programs for people and
animals ranging from the Pacific Northwest to Africa's Congo Basin
and Rift Valley.

About USAID

USAID is the lead U.S. Government Agency providing foreign
development and humanitarian assistance. The agency's Global
Development Alliance (GDA) links U.S. foreign assistance with the
resources, expertise and creativity of the private sector as well as
nongovernmental organizations. Since its launch in 2001, the Global
Development Alliance has changed the way many U.S. international
development projects are financed and implemented. USAID has
cultivated more than 900 public-private alliances with over 1,700
individual partners to benefit development programming. More
information: http://www.usaid.gov.

About the Wildlife Conservation Society

The Wildlife Conservation Society saves wildlife and wild places
worldwide through science, global conservation, education and the
management of the world's largest system of urban wildlife parks, led
by the flagship Bronx Zoo. Together these activities change attitudes
towards nature and help people imagine wildlife and humans living in
harmony.  WCS is committed to this mission because it is essential to
the integrity of life on Earth. More information: http://www.wcs.org.
Media contact: John Delaney, communications, (718) 220-3275,
jdelaney@wcs.org.

About Wildlife Trust

Wildlife Trust empowers local conservation scientists worldwide to
protect nature and safeguard ecosystem and human health. Wildlife
Trust is a conservation science innovator and leverages research
expertise through strategic global alliances. Wildlife Trust
pioneered the field of conservation medicine, a new discipline that
addresses the link between ecological disruption of habitats and the
effects on wildlife, livestock and human health. Wildlife Trust
trains and supports a network of scientists around the world to save
endangered species and their habitats and to protect the health of
vital ecosystems. Wildlife Trust created the first egalitarian
international network of science-based conservation organizations
called the Wildlife Trust Alliance and is a founding partner
organization of the Consortium for Conservation Medicine, a unique
think-tank of prestigious academic institutions. More information:
http://www.wildlifetrust.org. Media contact: Anthony Ramos, marketing
and communication, (212) 380-4469, ramos@wildlifetrust.org.

About Global Viral Forecasting Inc.

Global Viral Forecasting Incorporated (GVFInc) is a leader in
conducting infectious disease research throughout central Africa and
Southeast Asia.  With over 10 years of experience, and having
administered over $20 million of Department of Defense, National
Institutes of Health and other governmental and non-governmental
grants and contracts, GVFInc has shown that most major diseases of
humanity originated in animals and that exposure to wild and domestic
animals leads to continuous spillovers of novel agents into humans.
Through ongoing monitoring of humans who are highly exposed to
animals (e.g. through hunting, butchering, and other activities),
GVFInc has created a pilot for the first global early warning system
to prevent novel pandemics. By coupling this innovative surveillance
in field sites throughout the world with a consortium of top
laboratories, GVFInc is able to characterize the diversity of viruses
and other agents as they move from animals into human populations,
providing basic insights into how new diseases enter humans and
improving our ability to decrease the frequency of such events. More
information: http://www.gvfi.org. Media contact: Jeremy Alberga,
chief operating officer, (415) 398-4712, jalberga@gvfi.org.

About the Smithsonian Institution

Distinguished by unparalleled collections, stellar research and
expert staff, the Smithsonian Institution is uniquely positioned to
convene leading organizations to address complex opportunities and
issues that demand collaborative action. The Smithsonian National Zoo
Park conducts research to aid in the survival and recovery of species
and their habitats, and to ensure the health and well-being of
animals in captivity and in the wild. Smithsonian scientists are
world leaders in conservation biology. More information:
http://www.si.edu. Media contact: Enica Thompson, public affairs,
(202) 633-3083, thompsone@si.edu.

Additional information:
* UC Davis PREDICT <http://www.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/ohi/predict/index.cfm>
* UC Davis One Health Institute <http://www.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/ohi>


Media contact(s):
* Jonna Mazet, UC Davis PREDICT and One Health Institute, (530)
754-9035, jkmazet@ucdavis.edu
* Sylvia Wright, UC Davis News Service, (530) 752-7704,
swright@ucdavis.edu


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